A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
